Why PS3 will eventually beat 360

Written by rob on December 19, 2007 – 8:40 pm -

Looking at the numbers of the various consoles sold doesn’t really tell the whole story. For example, today there are roughly 13 million Wiis, 12 million Xbox 360s, and 5.5 million PS3s. To the casual observer, it looks like the Wii is the most popular, but only by a narrow margin over the 360. It then looks like the 360 is the 2nd most popular, while the PS3 trails behind.

To get a better idea of which one is more popular, one has to consider market share. That is, how much percentage of all consoles sold is a particular one. For example, right now Wii has 42% market share, 360 has 41%, and PS3 has 17%. These numbers alone do not help understand what is going on, until one compares the market shares for multiple times. So, one could check at the market share one week, and then again four weeks (1 month) later. With this data, they could see how fast each one is growing in terms of market share. This value tells the true story of what is going on, and how popular (how fast it is selling) each console is.

I started recording data in August, and have compiled some final data as of today, December 19. The data shows something that I always knew but that most people refuse to believe. Put simply, the PS3 is selling faster than 360. Everyone knows the Wii has been destroying everyone (it sold more in 1 year than 360 did in 2 years, and it’s only getting crazier), but I have included that data as well.

What I did was calculated, using Numbers (Mac’s new spreadsheet program, comparable to Excel), the market share at various dates. I then used formulas to figure out how much it changed from one data sampling to another (very simple in spreadsheets… just =C1-B1 stuff). The problem, however, is that I took my data samples at random dates. Therefore, there is no set interval between them. Because of this, I divided the market share change by the amount of days that had passed to get what I call the C/D value (Change in Market Share per Day). Finally, I averaged the C/D values from all of the data sampling days and got an average change in market share per day value for each console. The numbers confirm what I said above.

The PS3 market share has been changing by 0.006% per day (meaning it increases by that amount). Xbox 360’s market share has been changing by -0.031% per day (meaning it decreases by that amount). Finally, Wii market share increases by 0.025% per day. So in other words, Wii is selling the fastest, followed by PS3, with 360 trailing. What this means is that eventually, PS3 market share will surpass Xbox 360.

I did some calculations and found that the day this occurs will be 628 days from today. 628 minus 365 (because 2008 is a leap year) is 263, which is how many days into 2009 this day will occur. The 263rd day of the year is September 20th (on a non-leap year like 2009). Therefore, September 20, 2009, the Playstation 3 will have sold more units than the Xbox 360. I’m too lazy to figure out how many units this will actually be, but I’m not sure you can even do that with this data. The good part about this data, though, is that market share is all relative. Therefore, even if all consoles sell like crazy during the Christmas season, their market share changes don’t fluctuate (assuming they all sell equally during the holidays as they normally do).

That was a really long-winded way to say to everyone that the PS3 is selling better than 360, despite Halo 3 being released. That did nothing to help 360’s sales. For those that can’t read, are too lazy to read, or like pretty pictures, here is the same information displayed graphically.

NOTE: All data taken from NexGenWars

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